New CDCE survey shows millions lack ID as voter ID laws spread to more states

CDCE's work with VoteRiders allows us to know more than ever about the impact of voter ID laws. These data illuminate ways to decrease ID based disenfranchisement.

Voter ID laws are spreading. The public needs accurate and current data on their impact.

Since 2020, many states have passed new voter ID laws or made existing voter ID laws more restrictive. These laws often appear to have strong bipartisan public support. Indeed, a recent survey from Pew found that 81% of Americans - including 69% of Democrats - say they support “requiring all voters to show government-issued photo ID” when they vote. Support for voter ID laws has risen, especially among Democrats, since 2018.

As voter ID laws have spread and gained public support, the danger of ID based disenfranchisement - eligible voters being denied their right to vote because they cannot meet or are confused about a state ID requirement - potentially grows. But research about the impact of voter ID has not kept up with the needs of the public and policy makers. While large surveys like the American National Election Studies ask some questions about whether respondents have a driver’s license or passport, the questions are not specific enough to ascertain whether respondents would be disenfranchised by particular voter ID laws. The last nationally representative survey that could address the full impact of voter ID was conducted in 2006. And even that study did not have oversamples of key populations that are most in danger of ID based disenfranchisement.

CDCE is working with VoteRiders to do surveys that quantify the impact of voter ID laws.

As voter ID laws proliferate, it’s critical that scholars, policy makers, and community partners work together to provide detailed and current information about who these laws impact. That’s why CDCE has established an ongoing collaboration with VoteRiders to do research that is informed by the experiences of people working directly to provide ID to those who need it in communities across the country. In 2023, we published an initial set of findings based on ANES data and developed a strategy for a public survey that would do more to include people struggling to access ID. This included making investments in a sample drawn from pre-paid cell phones and oversamples of respondents that allow us to understand the way ID based disenfranchisement specifically affects 18-24 year olds, Black people, Hispanic people, and people with incomes under $30,000/year.

2.6 million Americans lack government issued photo ID of any kind - these people could not vote in many states today.

We estimate that about 2.6 million people lack any form of government issued photo ID.

Many Americans do not have a license or do not have one with their current address or name.

Many voter ID laws are written with the implicit assumption that nearly everyone can use a driver’s license to comply with them. This survey shows that over 20 million Americans do not have a driver’s license. These Americans are not distributed evenly in the population. Black (18%) and Hispanic (15%) people are more likely to lack a driver’s license. Thirty-percent of Black people aged 18-29 did not have a license - more than any other population in the survey.

The number of people potentially disenfranchised by voter ID laws expands dramatically when we consider people who do not have their current name and/or address on their driver’s license. More than 15% of all racial and ethnic groups either do not have a driver’s license or have one that does not match their current name and/or address. When voter ID laws are less comprehensive in accepting all government issued ID - even if it is expired or has a prior address or name - this population becomes at risk of ID based disenfranchisement.

There were also important differences by partisan identity. While millions of Americans of all partisan identities lack a drivers license, independent citizens lack a driver's license at double the rate of Democrats and triple the rate of Republicans. Substantial numbers of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are all in danger of ID based disenfranchisement if states enact or implement voter ID laws in ways that require individuals to have the address on their license match the address where they are registered to vote.

Some groups would be hit particularly hard by voter ID policies that require voters to use an ID that has their current name and address. We found that people between 18 and 24-year-olds are nearly 4 times as likely as people over 65 to not have their current name and/or address on their driver’s license.

People earning under $30,000 a year are 4 times more likely than people making over $100,000 annually to not have a driver’s license with their current name and/or address. 

Overall, we estimate that 34.5 million adult U.S. citizens do not have a driver’s license or state ID card, or do not have one with their current address and/or name. Even more people are confused about what ID they need to vote.

In states where photo ID is required to vote, we found 55% of people didn’t know about that requirement. This confusion could result in potential voters not realizing they don’t have the ID they need to vote until after it is too late to procure one. Independents are particularly unlikely to know about their state ID requirements.

In states that do not require government issued photo ID to vote, over 1/3 of people thought that it was. These people are at risk of staying home from the polls because they lack ID even though their state does not require one. Republicans are particularly likely to think they are required to show ID when it is not required.

Support for voter ID laws is not the same thing as support for ID based disenfranchisement. We found supermajority support for policies that address this issue.

The same Pew study that found over 80% of Americans support requiring photo ID to vote also found that broad majorities of Americans support policies like expanded early voting, same day registration, automatic voter registration, and allowing people convicted of felonies to vote after serving their sentences. These data suggests that many of the people who say they support voter ID laws are not saying they support using ID status to disenfranchise large numbers of Americans.

Our survey confirms the finding that there is broad bi-partisan public support for policies that address ID based disenfranchisement. In our survey, we tested questions about programs that would mandate that all high schools provide official state ID cards to students who do not yet have a driver’s license. Over 80% of Democrats and Republicans support this policy.

These data suggest that there are many potential messages that can effectively mobilize and engage the plurality of Americans who currently support voter ID laws but oppose ID based disenfranchisement. This is a fruitful area for future research.

The upshot? We know more about voter ID than ever before and there is urgent work to be done based on this survey.

This study shows the importance of ongoing research collaborations between scholars and community organizations to continually update our understanding of who is impacted by the ever changing landscape around voter ID. In the coming years, CDCE and VoteRiders will continue to work together to do national and state based studies that will give us much better estimates of the scale of potential ID based disenfranchisement.

This study also shows that there is urgent work to be done to help Americans without any form of ID to access the ballot. Additionally, it shows that policy makers and other stakeholders need to carefully examine the extent to which provisions of the laws, such as those that require current name and/or address might influence who has the ID they need to vote.

Lastly, this study confirms past findings that broad public support for voter ID laws is not the same thing as broad support for ID based disenfranchisement. Indeed, our study shows that there is actually super majority support for some policies that could make a major difference in addressing ID based disenfranchisement. 

We are looking forward to digging deeper into the nature of ID based disenfranchisement in the coming months. Please reach out to us if you have suggestions about what we should study or if you’d like to use or get involved with this research in any way!

Sam Novey is Chief Strategist at the UMD Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement.

Jillian Andres Rothschild is a PhD student studying American public opinion and political psychology in the University of Maryland Department of Government and Politics.