Starting to understand why so many Americans are voting early
In 2024, 85.9 million Americans - nearly half of all voters - voted before Election Day either by mail or through in-person early voting. Why are so many voters making this choice?
Expanded early voting is a long term trend supercharged by the pandemic.
Even before the pandemic, Americans had been choosing to vote before Election Day in higher and higher numbers. As recently as 1996, roughly 90% of American voters cast their vote on Election Day. But as some states adopted all mail elections and many others expanded no-excuse absentee voting and in-person early voting, the percentage of Americans waiting to vote until Election Day has dropped dramatically.
In 2020 during the pandemic, states expanded early voting and mail voting even more due to the public health emergency. Voters and poll workers sought to avoid catching COVID in crowded polling sites. Long-term habits were disrupted across all aspects of life, including voting. Election Day voting dropped precipitously. Fewer than 1/3 of voters in the 2020 election waited until Election Day to vote.1
Now we have data from 2024, the first post pandemic presidential election. In 2024, Election Day voting did not rebound to the levels it was at before 2020. Roughly 45% of voters waited until Election Day to vote in 2024 compared to more than 60% in 2016.2
In 2024, 85.9 million Americans chose to vote early.3
Why?
Early voting rates have risen dramatically in recent decades and the number of people voting early has nearly doubled since 2016. CDCE and Vote Early Day are teaming up to explore the reasons driving this seismic shift in how Americans vote.
As we approach the 2026 election, we are operating in an environment where American voters are voting on Election Day at far lower rates. Voters are literally voting with their feet and their stamps with this choice. Are they telling us something important about what they want from democracy? Understanding why so many Americans are voting early can provide valuable insights for election officials, civil society organizations, political campaigns, scholars, and other leaders working to strengthen American elections.
That’s why our team at CDCE is teaming up with Vote Early Day - a national non-partisan movement of more than 3,000 organizations working to give all voters the tools they need to use early voting options - to understand why so many Americans are voting early. Together we will scan the literature, hear from community organizations and election officials working to serve voters directly, and develop new research projects to explore this question.
Here is a non-exhaustive list of hypotheses we have about why so many Americans are voting early. What do you think is driving this trend?
There are many reasons why tens of millions of Americans are choosing to vote early instead of waiting until Election Day. Here are a few that we will be exploring through our partnership with Vote Early Day.
Voters have chosen to support politicians or ballot measures that change election laws in ways that reduce Election Day options: Eight states - including population centers like California, Oregon, Colorado, and Washington - have implemented all mail elections. We will look into how much of the shift to early voting can be accounted for by these policy changes and the dynamics in these states that have led voters to support these policy changes.
Some voters find early voting to be more logistically convenient than Election Day voting: How many and what kind of people have chosen to vote early because of logistical convenience?
Some voters are mobilized by campaigns to vote early: As campaigns have sought to “bank votes” before Election Day, many voters are mobilized by campaigns to shift their voting habits. Who is reached and persuaded by this kind of messaging?
Some voters choose to vote early for individual emotional reasons: Many voters report voting early because of anxiety about the election or a feeling of wanting to “get it over with” or “cross it off their list” as soon as possible. Other voters tend to put off tasks until the last minute. As voting options have increased, how have these options interacted with a neurodiverse electorate? Do prevalent conditions like anxiety or ADHD lead to people feeling more comfortable emotionally with certain methods of voting?
Some voters choose to vote early for social or cultural reasons: At CDCE we have studied efforts to use culturally significant locations like stadiums as early voting sites and found some evidence of voters choosing to come to these locations to have a special, unique, or meaningful voting experience. Other efforts like Souls to the Polls programs embed voting within a communal religious experience. Other “Parties at the Polls” and community celebrations of voting try to create a more celebratory environment at certain voting locations, especially during early in-person voting. How many voters are choosing to vote early in order to participate in a social or cultural voting experience of some kind?
Some voters simply are in the habit of voting before Election Day: We know voting is habitual. How many voters simply built a habit of voting by mail or voting early in the pandemic and now continue to vote that way simply because of familiarity?
The Upshot? Understanding the seismic shift to early voting over the last 30 years can help us envision new futures for American elections.
Voting in America has been transformed by the transition to voting before Election Day in recent decades. Understanding why so many American voters have chosen to vote before Election Day can provide valuable insights for efforts to strengthen American democracy. These insights can help us all envision stronger policies and community mobilization efforts. Together we can create voting options that are excellently and fairly implemented, logistically convenient for all voters, and socially or culturally meaningful for the voters seeking additional meaning in their voting experience.
Sam Novey is the Chief Strategist at the University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement.
McDonald, Michael P. 2025. “2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics” United States Elections Project. May 12, 2025 https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
McDonald, Michael P. 2025. "2016 Early Vote.xlsx" United States Elections Project. May 12, 2025 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fz_V3oAUL8XJMEudq5wm5hDT_f554uagt6sIm_sJDro/edit?gid=1996929977#gid=1996929977
McDonald, Michael P. 2025. "2024 Early Voting" United States Elections Project. May 12, 2025 https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/